Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science


Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

John O. Miller, PhD.


The end of military operations in Iraq brought a new set of challenges for Air Force supply professionals as they responsibly reduced levels of assets within the country while supporting on-going missions. This research evaluates two separate supply reduction plans that were implemented at Balad Air Base during the Air Force's final months in the area of operations. The logic of Air Force consumable inventory computations are modeled in detail and historical data from supply records are utilized to evaluate each plan's supportability to different notional fleet sizes. Each plan is evaluated under measures of backorders, backorder quantities, and customer wait time. Furthermore, this research combines these measures with a commercial business measure to ascertain which plan is better suited to reducing supply levels while maintaining adequate levels of support to on-going operations. An agent-based model simulation is developed as the analysis technique for this study. Simulation models are excellent tools to evaluate alternative scenarios that are otherwise too costly or impractical to evaluate on a live system. Agent-based modeling provides a unique bottom-up approach where analysis is permissible not only at a system level but also at the process level. The model developed for this study allows for the differentiation and evaluation of the supply reduction plans implemented at Balad AB under dynamic conditions. Additionally, it provides insight for consideration by Air Force senior leaders into which plan is better suited to support supply drawdowns in future contingency base closings.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number