Date of Award

3-26-2015

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

John O. Miller, PhD.

Abstract

Air Force (AF) Concept Development and Experimentation (CD&E) continually progresses the evolution of AF while achieving national security and military objectives. CD&E experiments on future challenges, procurement of new weapon systems and tests existing/innovative strategies as potential solutions. The primary tool that CD&E utilizes in conducting these experiments is wargaming. This thesis provides a foundation to incorporate logistics into Air Force Title 10 wargames. More specifically, we capture Air Force Materiel Command's (AFMC) Agile Combat Support (ACS) within an unclassified general wargame scenario. Logistics has been omitted from wargames for a multitude of reasons throughout the years. We develop a logistics simulation model of a simplified wargame scenario designed to be run within the Logistics Composite Model (LCOM) Analysis Toolkit (ATK) version 4.0 before a wargame initiates. We capture ACS within the stochastic simulation by incorporating engine failures, maintenance crews, ammunition, fuel, and various other logistics metrics. By varying the types of sortie operations and the logistics support available, further insight is gathered on Blue Force capabilities. We develop decision quality information to present to a decision maker by combining statistical and multivariate analysis. Our approach showcases how to gather insights from ACS metrics, including development of a metamodel using only four metrics to successfully predict key ACS Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs). Ultimately, we design, analyze and demonstrate that logistics can and should be incorporated into wargames.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-MS-15-M-127

DTIC Accession Number

ADA615051

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