Date of Award
Master of Science
Department of Engineering Physics
Ariel O. Acebal, PhD.
The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and Coned Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with Coned Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (CME's). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the Coned Model. The Coned Model employed image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO-LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. . The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CME's, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CME's on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al.  maximum Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the solar wind parameters near Earth.
DTIC Accession Number
Emmons, Daniel J., "Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL with Coned Model" (2012). Theses and Dissertations. 1173.