Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Master of Science in Cost Analysis


Department of Mathematics and Statistics

First Advisor

Edward D. White, PhD.


In 2009, Captain Thomas Worden determined the Air Force Physical Fitness Test (AFPFT) poorly predicted combat capability for his 86 study participants. With only 5 of these 86 volunteers being women, this limited Worden's findings to primarily men. This follow-on research investigated whether these results carried over to women. We recruited 61 female volunteers and compared their performance on the AFPFT to the Marine Combat Fitness Test, the proxy for combat capability. Like Worden's research, we discovered little association between the two (R2 of 0.161). However, this association significantly increased (adj R2 of 0.572) when utilizing the raw scores of the AFPFT instead of using the scoring tables.

Improving upon these associations, we built multiple regression models using Ordinary Least Squares. Similar to Capt Worden's mostly male-study we arrived at comparable conclusions. The best two-event model for combat fitness capability incorporates a half-mile run and 30-lb ammunition can lifts (adj R2 of 0.864) and the best three event model adds a Maneuver Under Fire (adj R2 of 0.91). By adopting either model, we greatly improve the Air Force's ability to assess combat capability for women.

AFIT Designator


DTIC Accession Number


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Analysis Commons