Date of Award

3-2023

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Department of Operational Sciences

First Advisor

Lance E. Champagne, PhD

Abstract

Determining whether a simulation model is operationally valid requires the rigorous assessment of agreement between observed functional responses of the simulation model and the corresponding real world system or process of interest. This research seeks to extend and formulate the probability of agreement approach to the operational validation of simulation models. The first paper provides a methodological approach and an initial demonstration which leverages bootstrapping to overcome situations where one’s ability to collect real-world data is limited. The second paper extends the probability of agreement approach to account for second-order heteroscedastic variability structures and establishes a weighted probability of agreement global validation metric to allow for sensitivity analysis of parameter distribution perturbations. The third paper applies the extended probability of agreement approach to the operational validation and calibration of engineering-based computational models. The fourth paper applies the extended probability of agreement approach the operational validation of multi-resolution models within the military analytic domain.

AFIT Designator

AFIT-ENS-DS-23-M-135

Comments

A 12-month embargo was observed.

Approved for public release. Case number on file.

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